Seismotectonic modeling for seismic hazard analysis of vardar zone in Republic of Macedonia

Abstract

The investigations of seismicity, tectonics and geology of the territory of Republic of Macedonia that have been performed so far have pointed out the direct relationship between the earthquake occurrence and tectonic processes. To define a seismogene source and earthquake occurrence, it is necessary to know the geological evolution of the terrain particularly in contemporary conditions. In the investigated area, earthquakes have exclusively been of a tectonic origin wherefore the greatest attention has been paid to the activity of the fault structures in the Vardar zone, the correlation between the epicenters of occurred earthquakes and the geological media through which the seismic waves propagate. The seismotectonic map of the Vardar zone clearly shows that the stretching direction of the fault structures correlates with the epicenters of occurred earthquakes. The seismicity model formulated on the basis of data from the seismological and seismotectonic investigations of the region has been the starting point in defining the seismic hazard. Two approaches have been proposed for definition of a seismic model to be used in defining the seismic hazard. A comparison between these models has also been made.