Abstract
Abstract Seismometers continuously record a wide range of ground vibrations that are not necessarily related to earthquake activity, but are rather caused by human activity such as industrial processes and traffic. We isolate the human-made imprints from a huge data set made of nearly 20 years of continuously recorded seismic data in Beijing, China, and construct a new daily indicator, the Vibration Index, to forecast regional industrial production. We find that our indicator closely tracks business cycle fluctuations particularly during economic crises. Our results provide policymakers with a new tool to monitor the economy at a highly granular level.
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