Abstract
On 3 March 2021, a strong, shallow earthquake of moment magnitude, Mw6.3, occurred in northern Thessaly (Central Greece). To investigate possible complex correlations in the evolution of seismicity in the broader area of Central Greece before the Mw6.3 event, we apply the methods of multiresolution wavelet analysis (MRWA) and natural time (NT) analysis. The description of seismicity evolution by critical parameters defined by NT analysis, integrated with the results of MRWA as the initiation point for the NT analysis, forms a new framework that may possibly lead to new universal principles that describe the generation processes of strong earthquakes. In the present work, we investigate this new framework in the seismicity prior to the Mw6.3 Thessaly earthquake. Initially, we apply MRWA to the interevent time series of the successive regional earthquakes in order to investigate the approach of the regional seismicity at critical stages and to define the starting point of the natural time domain. Then, we apply the NT analysis, showing that the regional seismicity approached criticality a few days before the occurrence of the Mw6.3 earthquake, when the κ1 natural time parameter reached the critical value of κ1 = 0.070.
Highlights
On 3 March 2021, an MW 6.3 earthquake occurred in northern Thessaly (CentralGreece), close to the cities of Tyrnavos, Elassona and Larisa (Figure 1)
We investigated the regional patterns of seismicity in the area of the Thessaly (Mw 6.3) strong earthquake on 3 March 2021, by applying multiresolution wavelet analysis (MRWA) and natural time (NT)
The analysis was performed in the natural time domain, with an approximate starting point indicated by MRWA
Summary
Greece), close to the cities of Tyrnavos, Elassona and Larisa (Figure 1). The earthquake occurred in a region that is one of the most seismically active in Greece, mainly characterized by normal faulting along NW–SE striking faults, which belong to the Thessaly fault zone [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10]. The analysis of various complex systems in the NT domain wavelet-based methods have been introduced characterize fractal enablesFurthermore, the optimal extraction of signal information by reducing the to uncertainties related [42,43,44,45] andtime, to overcome associated with [46,47],ina very tosignals the conventional as well effects as the identification of non-stationarities long-range correlations the frequent of effect the time dynamics of an earthquake evolution the in system, even in the presence of “heavysequence. Earthquake, integrated with the results of applied to applicability of NT analysis, as presented in the regional seismic activity prior to the Mw 6.3 the interevent time series of the successive events, in order to define, with an objective.
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