Seismicity For The Eastern Black Sea Region With Statistical Approaches

Abstract

Summary The seismic hazard estimation involves the evaluation of the seismicity within a set of seismogenic zones, taken into consideration by using best suitable models among which the Poisson distribution is the most commonly used statistical models. Gutenberg-Richter (GR) relationship “logN = a−bM” states that the logarithm of the number of earthquakes is linearly dependent on the magnitude of the earthquakes. The constants of GR relationship are essential for hazard assessment and they can be used to predict earthquake occurrences, recurrence periods and seismicity at a given region. In this study, so-called essential parameters for the hazard assessment, a- and b-values of GR relationship for selected characteristic 7 seismogenic sources and all region in the Eastern Black Sea region near the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) are calculated with linear least square method (LLS) and maximum likelihood method (ML) and, the probability of earthquake occurrences and recurrence periods by using Poisson model for these sub-regions are determined. According to the seismic risk estimations, the highest earthquake occurrence probability and recurrence time of MS >7.0 in the next 100 years is 69% and 85 years for sub-region 6.