Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Thermal Power Plants Based on Beta Function

Abstract

The study on seismic vulnerability of thermal power plants is of great significance for seismic damage prevention of the electrical power system and risk analysis of seismic economic loss. This paper presented a study method for obtaining the seismic vulnerability matrix and vulnerability curve of thermal power plants based on beta function. Firstly, according to the study results of thermal power plants in American ATC-25 report, the expected values of seismic damage indexes of thermal power plants under different seismic intensities were calculated. It was assumed that the expected values of seismic damage indexes of substation and thermal power plant were the same, and the dispersion of distribution of seismic damage indexes was the same. Then, based on the actual seismic vulnerability matrix of substations obtained from statistics in Wenchuan earthquake, the seismic vulnerability matrix of thermal power plants under different seismic intensities was fitted by using the probability density function of beta distribution. Finally, the seismic vulnerability curve of the thermal power plant based on peak ground acceleration (PGA) was obtained by using the cumulative function curve of standard lognormal distribution. The calculation results show that the seismic damage ratio calculated from the seismic vulnerability matrix of thermal power plants is basically consistent with the seismic damage ratio in ATC-25 report.