Seismic Risk Perception in Al-Marj, Libya: A Case Study after the 1963 Earthquake

Somaia S Suwihli,Thomas R Paradise

doi:10.4236/ojer.2020.94020

Abstract

Individual beliefs, knowledge, and perception play a vital role in understanding and coping with the consequences of earthquakes. These perceptions then mold the broader perceptions of risk and danger held by communities, which ultimately create public policy. This survey study was designed and conducted to assess the perceptions of seismic hazard and risk of earthquake survivors and residents in Al-Marj, Libya—a city razed in a 1963 tremor. In 2019, 364 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed for their knowledge and perception of earthquakes. Surveys were conducted in Arabic and included demographic and narrative questions in addition to Likert-scaled responses. A number of predictable, surprising, and valuable correlations were found. It was found that during earthquakes most respondents prayed to Allah, or did nothing, in comparison to escape, seeking shelter, or running for help. The majority believed their neighborhoods were unsafe while questions illiciting some aspect of quake recurrence caused a complete refusal to answer; they commented “I do not know” or “only God knows”. Most respondents did not consider preparation to be important, but younger respondents were relatively more prepared. Surprisingly, highly educated respondents were less prepared, however, they also attributed earthquakes to tectonic slipping and not divine retaliation or retribution. However, less-educated respondents stated “I do not know”, “Allah punishes”, or “Allah tests the believers”. Most participants considered themselves well-informed about earthquakes from popular media sources (internet, TV, magazines). These findings were vital in gaining an insight into hazard perception and high-risk behavior in a seismically active region like Libya. When natural hazard recurrence (i.e. earthquakes) are better understood, then the potential consequences of injury, damages, and deaths may be assessed, and an overall plan to produce sustainable disaster management strategies and decrease risk can be created and implemented.

Highlights

Because of its unpredictable nature injury, death, and damages from earthquake, human life and property are often more vulnerable to this natural disaster [1]
These perceptions mold the broader perceptions of risk and danger held by communities, which create public policy. This survey study was designed and conducted to assess the perceptions of seismic hazard and risk of earthquake survivors and residents in Al-Marj, Libya—a city razed in a 1963 tremor
This study focuses on perceptions of earthquake recurrence, construction standard policies, and the level of preparedness of the survivors of Al-Marj tremor

Summary

Introduction

Because of its unpredictable nature injury, death, and damages from earthquake, human life and property are often more vulnerable to this natural disaster [1]. A natural hazard becomes a disaster when it causes deaths, injury, and material losses [2]. This new perspective confirms that disasters do not occur, but are caused [3]. People are unlikely to adapt or change their behavior or habits to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards if this increases their vulnerability to other major concerns. In these situations, the top-down approach seems to be less effective in reducing community vulnerability. Research has repeatedly confirmed that people are most likely to take protective action if they believe that they are at risk [8] [9] [10] [11] [12]

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion