Seismic Risk Mitigation and Management for Critical Infrastructures Using an RMIR Indicator

Abstract

Recent earthquake events have highlighted the importance of critical infrastructure (CI) resilience, as a strong correlation was found between economic loss and severity of CI damage. CIs are characterized by a complex structure composed of sub-components that are essential for the continuous performance of the system. CI owners and governments allocate ample resources to retrofitting and upgrading CI systems and components to increase the resilience of CIs and reduce risk in case of seismic events. Governments and decision makers must manage and optimize the retrofitting efforts to meet budget and time constraints. This research presents a probabilistic methodology for CI seismic risk mitigation and management. The risk expectancy is appraised according to an FTA-based stochastic simulation. The simulation includes the development of exclusive fragility curves for the CI and an examination of the expected damage distribution as a function of earthquake intensity and fragility uncertainty of the components. Furthermore, this research proposes a novel RMIR (risk mitigation to investment ratio) indicator for the priority setting of seismic mitigation alternatives. The RMIR is a quantitative indicator that evaluates each alternative’s cost-effectiveness in terms of risk expectancy mitigation. Following the alternative’s RMIR value, it is possible to prioritize the alternatives meeting budget and time constraints. This paper presents the implementation of the proposed methodology through a case study of a generic oil pumping station. The case study includes twelve mitigation alternatives examined and evaluated according to the RMIR indicator.