Abstract
This article elaborates on a peaks over threshold (POT) model with earthquake samples based on the Pareto distribution. We analyze the earthquakes using the POT model in the eastern Bayan Har block. The result shows that the area experiences an earthquake above 7.5 every 30 years and a large earthquake above 7.8 every 100 years. The average magnitude of earthquakes above 5.2 that occur in the area every 5 years is 7.1 or greater. The upper limit of the theoretical magnitude predicted by the model is 8.7. Therefore, the risk of geological hazards is high in this area.
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