Abstract
The last National Risk Assessment NRA for Italy was developed at the end of 2018 by the Department of Civil Protection (DPC) in response to the specific requirement of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 to periodically adjourn the assessment of disaster risk. The methodology adopted to perform seismic risk assessment and build national seismic risk maps was specifically developed to comply with the recent Code for Civil Protection, issuing that, in addition to a solid scientific base, risk assessment should be characterized by a wide consensus of the scientific community. As a result, six research units belonging to two Centers of Competence of the DPC, namely ReLUIS (Network of university laboratories for seismic engineering) and EUCENTRE (European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering), collaborated under the guidance and coordination of DPC to produce the recent updating of national seismic risk maps for the residential building stock. This paper describes the methodology adopted to develop the consensus-based national seismic risk assessment and presents the main results in terms of expected damage and impact measures (unusable buildings, homeless, casualties, direct economic losses).
Highlights
The first out of four priority actions of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (United Nations 2015) is “Understanding Disaster Risk in all its dimensions of vulnerability, capacity, exposure of persons and assets, hazard characteristics and the environment.” Such knowledge can be used for risk assessment and is at the base for the consequent actions of prevention, mitigation, preparedness and response.In Italy, thanks to the action of the national Department of Civil Protection (DPC), the fundamental role of the “knowledge of risk scenarios” has already been acknowledged for quite some time
This is a specific feature of this multimodel approach, which has been pursued because quite often the results of different seismic risk assessment can be compared only on the final results, and not in the intermediate results, because of the many different assumptions made on the hazard, the exposure, the vulnerability metrics, the soil amplification modeling, the different damage-consequence converting relationships, as well as the calculation engine, which makes it impossible to ascertain the sources of the final differences of the risk assessment
The methodology adopts a shared approach in the Italian scientific community operating in the seismic vulnerability and risk field; it is based on the consensus on procedures to compute the risk in terms of expected damage for the residential building stock and associated consequences, allowing for the maximum freedom in the definition of the vulnerability/exposure model
Summary
The first out of four priority actions of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (United Nations 2015) is “Understanding Disaster Risk in all its dimensions of vulnerability, capacity, exposure of persons and assets, hazard characteristics and the environment.” Such knowledge can be used for risk assessment and is at the base for the consequent actions of prevention, mitigation, preparedness and response. The first out of four priority actions of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (United Nations 2015) is “Understanding Disaster Risk in all its dimensions of vulnerability, capacity, exposure of persons and assets, hazard characteristics and the environment.” Such knowledge can be used for risk assessment and is at the base for the consequent actions of prevention, mitigation, preparedness and response. The development of new seismic risk maps had to comply with the requirements of the new civil protection Code, issuing that, in addition to a solid scientific base, risk assessment requires a wide consensus of the scientific community. The effective collaboration among such research units, under the guidance and coordination of DPC, made it possible to produce the new national seismic risk maps for the residential building stock included in the NRA 2018 (ICPD 2018)
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