Seismic risk assessment for the infrastructure in the regions adjacent to the Russian Federation Baikal–Amur Mainline based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

Abstract

The purpose of the analysis is to assess the risk of loss in performance of infrastructure facilities in the regions adjacent to the Russian Federation Baikal–Amur and Trans-Siberian Mainlines due to seismic events of maximum macroseismic intensity expected in a period of 50 years with a probability of 10%, 5% and 1%. In particular, we use earthquake data compiled at the Baikal Division of the Russian Geophysical Survey, which provides sufficiently complete earthquake determinations of M = 2.5 or larger events for the period 1994–2019 for a reliable mapping the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes coefficients at the seismically active cells of a regular grid. Based on these estimates, we present maps of the maximum expected magnitude in about 500, 1000 and 5000 years. Having described an anisotropic seismic effect model of seismic sites in the region, we conclude by characterizing the seismic hazard in traditional terms of macroseismic intensity and by estimating the associated seismic risk to selected infrastructures, i.e. Baikal–Amur Mainline and Trans-Siberian Railway.