Seismic resilience assessment of Small Modular Reactors by a Three-loop Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

We develop a three-loop Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) framework for the seismic resilience assessment of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), embedding Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), seismic fragility evaluation and multiple SMR units accident sequence analysis. A set of metrics are computed to capture different aspects of SMR resilience to earthquakes, specifically the ability to withstand seismic disruption, mitigate consequences and restore normal operation. The MCS framework allows accounting for the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of the PSHA and fragility parameters. An application is given with regards to an advanced Nuclear Power Plant (aNPP) consisting of four reactor units of NuScale SMR design. A comparison is made to a conventional NPP (cNPP), i.e., a typical large reactor of equivalent generation capacity. Both plants are fictitiously located on the Garigliano nuclear site (southern Italy). The results show that resilient features of SMRs overcome cNPPs in terms of post-accident scenario mitigation and restoration capabilities.