Seismic reliability evaluation of gas supply networks based on the probability density evolution method

Abstract

An accurate and efficient reliability evaluation is necessary for network systems with uncertain conditions, especially for the lifeline networks subjected to earthquakes. This study takes gas supply networks as examples and establishes an approach to evaluate the seismic reliability of networks on the basis of the probability density evolution method. First, a nonlinear finite element model is established to simulate buried pipe networks that are subjected to earthquakes. Then, the seismic stresses of the pipes are derived, and the von Mises stresses of the pipes are calculated and used to judge pipe failure. Second, a connectivity index is defined to describe the connectivity between the source and the terminal. Third, on the basis of the probability density evolution method, network reliability is obtained after introducing a physically-based model to simulate ground motion field. Finally, two networks are used as examples to demonstrate the proposed approach, and the results are validated by the Monte Carlo simulation method and compared with a selective recursive decomposition algorithm.