Seismic reliability analysis of water distribution networks on the basis of the probability density evolution method

Abstract

In this study, a new approach for assessing the seismic functional reliability of water distribution networks is presented on the basis of the probability density evolution method. The original contribution of this paper is to build a new framework for the reliability analysis of water distribution networks on the basis of the physical mechanism of water distribution networks subjected to earthquakes. Firstly, a finite element model is established to capture the seismic response of the entire buried pipe networks. Then the nodal head of water distribution networks is derived through hydraulic analysis of water distribution networks with leakages. Secondly, owing to the randomness of ground motions, the probability density functions of the nodal heads of water distribution networks are obtained on the basis of the probability density evolution method. Thirdly, the seismic functional reliability of water distribution networks is evaluated considering the demand heads of nodes. When the nodal head is larger than the predetermined water head, the node is reliable while when the nodal head is smaller than the predetermined water head, the node is not reliable. Two examples, namely, a virtual and an actual water distribution networks, are examined in detail to investigate the feasibility of the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method effectively evaluates the seismic functional reliability of water distribution networks.