Abstract
Significant earthquakes on the island of Sumatra, Indonesia, have predominantly been earthquakes with a thrust mechanism that occurred due to the subduction process and seismotectonics near coastal cities of West and South Sumatra, which could be affected by earthquakes triggered by these seismic sources. We compared the Seismic Hazard Function (SHF) of two coastal cities of Sumatra: Bengkulu and Padang. The results showed that the SHF of Bengkulu is higher than that of Padang. Estimated earthquake hazards are presented in the form of seismic hazard maps expressed as the PGA of 10% rate of exceedance probability in 50 years. In estimating the seismic potential in Sumatra, the seismic moment rate was jointly estimated from the smoothed mean seismicity rate and the pre-seismic subduction surface strain rate model. In this study, the island of Sumatra was chosen as a master model for Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA). The motivation for choosing Sumatra for the SHA was because of the large body of complete historical earthquake data of the North Western Sunda Arc. The SHF is calculated based on a magnitude range of 6.0 to 9.0 during 50 years with the radius distance from the source less than or equal to 100 km.
Highlights
Understanding seismic hazard is basically determined by how well or how reliable a potential earthquake model functions; while the reliability of a potential seismic model is determined by the extent of our knowledge regarding understanding possible sources, data completeness, and the rate of seismicity
Triyoso and Shimazaki (2012) proposed using a combination of the seismicity smoothing developed by Frankel (1995) and surface strain rate deduced from GPS data to estimate the potential seismic model for seismic hazard study and analysis
The Seismic Hazard Function of the integrated megathrust sources model was mapped by calculating a PGA of 10% exceedance probability for 50 years
Summary
Understanding seismic hazard is basically determined by how well or how reliable a potential earthquake model functions; while the reliability of a potential seismic model is determined by the extent of our knowledge regarding understanding possible sources, data completeness, and the rate of seismicity. Triyoso and Shimazaki (2012) proposed using a combination of the seismicity smoothing developed by Frankel (1995) and surface strain rate deduced from GPS data to estimate the potential seismic model for seismic hazard study and analysis. The Seismic Hazard Function of the integrated megathrust sources model was mapped by calculating a PGA of 10% exceedance probability for 50 years. The seismicity smoothing was estimated for the declustered catalog data with correlation distances of 25, 50 and 150 km in which Mw ≥ 5.0 and depth range of H ≤ 50 km were used for this study.
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