Abstract
In this paper, a seismic hazard assessment (SHA) of the Shigo Kas hydropower project has been performed by deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The previously developed MATLAB-based code has been used for deterministic SHA, incorporating local site effects through deep soil analysis. On the other hand, for probabilistic SHA, CRISIS 2007 has been used through diffuse areal source zones. The latest updated earthquake instrumental and historical catalogs have been developed. Based on the recommendations of the International Commission on Large Dams, peak ground acceleration (PGA) values for the maximum credible earthquake (MCE), safety evaluation earthquake (SEE), design basis earthquake (DBE) and operating basis earthquake (OBE) have been assessed, which are 0.50 g, 0.68 g, 0.35 g and 0.24 g, respectively, at the intake location, and 0.50 g, 0.61 g, 0.30 g and 0.22 g, respectively, at the powerhouse location. Hazard maps have been developed for scenario-based earthquakes (MCE) and for the peak ground acceleration of 145-, 475- and 2500-year return periods. The de-aggregation process has evaluated the combined effects of magnitude and distance. At a distance of 30 to 70 km from the earthquake source, earthquakes of magnitude 5 Mw to 5.6 Mw and 5.9 Mw to 6.5 Mw are more hazardous for the current project.
Highlights
Pakistan faces an acute shortage of energy, and with the passage of time, the gap between demand and deliverable capacity at national power stations is widening
Deterministic and probabilistic approaches have been used for seismic hazard analysis of the Shigo Kas
The CRISIS 2007 software has been used for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
Summary
Pakistan faces an acute shortage of energy, and with the passage of time, the gap between demand and deliverable capacity at national power stations is widening. Pakistan is located in a seismically active region of the world [16] It has been struck by disastrous earthquakes in the past and in recent times. Any new hydroelectric project in a potentially seismically active region of the world should undergo seismic hazard assessment studies, such as the northern Pakistani areas. The purpose of this study is to recalculate the project area seismic hazard using the most recent earthquake catalog and ground motion prediction equations, and to compare it to the value recommended by earlier studies, such as [3,4,21,23,34,35,36]. The repeated earthquakes in Pakistan and the surrounding area are consequences of the collision of these two plates, resulting in the formation of the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindukush. Syntax in the MBT zone was the source of the October 2005 Kashmir earthquake [39]
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