Seismic hazard assessment in TERESA test areas based on a Bayesian technique

Abstract

A method based on Bayesian techniques has been applied to evaluate the seismic hazard in the two test areas selected by the participants in the ESC/SC8-TERESA project: Sannio-Matese in Italy and the northern Rhine region (BGN). A prior site occurrence model (prior SOM) is obtain from a seismicity distribution modeled in wide seismic sources. The posterior occurrence model (posterior SOM) is calculated after a Bayesian correction which, basically, recovers the spatial information of the epicenter distribution and considers attenuation and location errors, not using source zones. The uncertainties of the occurrence probabilities are evaluated in both models. The results are displayed in terms of probability and variation coefficient contour maps for a chosen intensity level, and with plots of mean return period versus intensity in selected test sites, including the 90% probability intervals. It turns out that the posterior SOM gives a better resolution in the probability estimate, decreasing its uncertainty, especially in low seismic activity regions.