SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR MYANMAR

Abstract

In this study, the seismic hazards of Myanmar are analyzed based on both deterministic and probabilistic scenarios. The area of the Sumatra–Andaman Subduction Zone is newly defined and the lines of faults proposed previously are grouped into nine earthquake sources that might affect the Myanmar region. The earthquake parameters required for the seismic hazard analysis (SHA) were determined from seismicity data including paleoseismological information. Using previously determined suitable attenuation models, SHA maps were developed. For the deterministic SHA, the earthquake hazard in Myanmar varies between 0.1 g in the Eastern part up to 0.45 g along the Western part (Arakan Yoma Thrust Range). Moreover, probabilistic SHA revealed that for a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 and 100 years, the levels of ground shaking along the remote area of the Arakan Yoma Thrust Range are 0.35 and 0.45 g, respectively. Meanwhile, the main cities of Myanmar located nearby the Sagaing Fault Zone, such as Mandalay, Yangon, and Naypyidaw, may be subjected to peak horizontal ground acceleration levels of around 0.25 g.