Seismic functionality of healthcare network considering traffic congestion and hospital malfunctioning: A medical accessibility approach

Abstract

Earthquake hazards may cause a significant loss to healthcare networks. This study presents an improved gravity-based medical accessibility analysis, considering the possible damage to healthcare networks, changes in traffic flow in the case of road blockages, and service reduction in the case of malfunctioning in hospitals. The post-earthquake travel time representing the transportation performance is calculated with the traffic flow method, considering the reduction in travel capacity from building debris and bridge damage. The post-earthquake medical service is quantified with the Bayesian network and treatment chain. Various uncertainties are also embodied in this assessment framework through the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The proposed method is implemented in a seismic functionality assessment of a realistic healthcare network in a city in China. The results highlight the medical accessibility applied to the assessment framework under various seismic scenarios and fully capture the functionality of the healthcare network during the emergency response period. Emergency managers can use the study to create crucial policies for the medical response service after an earthquake.