Seismic Fragility Analysis of Offshore Wind Turbines Considering Site-Specific Ground Responses

Abstract

This study investigated the seismic performance and assessed the seismic fragility of an existing pentapod suction-bucket-supported offshore wind turbine, focusing on the amplification of earthquake ground motions. A simplified suction bucket–soil interaction model with nonlinear spring elements was employed within a finite element framework, linking the suction bucket and soil to hypothetical points on the OWT structures at the mudline. Unlike conventional approaches using bedrock earthquake records, this study utilized free-field surface motions as input, derived from bedrock ground motions through one-dimensional wave theory propagation to estimate soil-layer-induced amplification effects. The validity of the simplified model was confirmed, enabling effective assessment of seismic vulnerability through fragility curves. These curves revealed that the amplification effect increases the vulnerability of the OWT system, raising the probability of exceeding damage limit states such as horizontal displacement of the tower top, tower stress, and horizontal displacement at the mudline during small to moderate earthquakes, while decreasing this likelihood during strong earthquakes. Comparisons between the Full Model and the simplified Spring Model reveal that the simplified model reduces computational time by approximately 75%, with similar seismic response accuracy, making it a valuable tool for rapid seismic assessments. This research contributes to enhancing seismic design practices for suction-bucket-supported offshore wind turbines by employing a minimalist finite element model approach.