Seismic Fault Slip Behavior Predicted From Internal Microphysical Processes

Abstract

AbstractEarthquake simulation and hazard prediction are strongly hampered by insufficient physical knowledge of the constitutive behavior of faults. Laboratory studies of carbonate fault friction suggest that seismogenic rupture on faults in carbonate terrains can be explained by a transition from high friction at low initial sliding velocities (V) to low friction at seismic slip velocities, that is, by rapid dynamic weakening. One proposed explanation for this weakening, invokes frictional heating resulting in deformation by grain boundary sliding accommodated by solid‐state diffusion (sometimes referred to as “viscous” or “superplastic” flow). We recently added this dynamic weakening mechanism to a microphysically based model addressing the (rate‐and‐state) frictional behavior of granular gouges undergoing low V shear characteristic of rupture nucleation and arrest. In the present study, we applied the full model to simulate seismic slip in laboratory carbonate faults. Assuming that slip localizes in a principal shear band within the fault (gouge) zone, and accounting for grain size evolution with velocity and temperature, the model reproduces the frictional, thermal and (micro‐)structural evolution observed during seismic slip experiments. In particular, it predicts spatial and temporal evolutions of grain size, porosity, and dominant deformation mechanisms, within and outside the assumed shear band, consistent with trends identified in the laboratory and natural fault zones.