Abstract
In this paper, earthquake scenarios parameters were assessed for deterministic seis-mic hazard of the southern slope of Greater Caucasus (Azerbaijan). Historically, there occurred strong earthquakes in the studied region. Series of soft and strong earthquakes occurred for the recent years on the southern slope of Greater Caucasus in Azerbaijan in Balakan (14.10.2012, M = 5,6; 29.06.2014, M = 5,3); Zagatala (07.05.2012, M = 5,7; 18.05.2012, M = 5,0; 05.06.2018, M = 5,5); Sheki (earthquake swarm 05.02.2004, M = 3,2 ¸ 4.6); Sheki-Oguz (04.09.2015, M = 5,9); Gabala 04.10.2014, M = 5,0); Ismailli (05.02.2019, M = 5,2) demonstrates the increase of seismic activity in the given region and proves once aga-in the necessity and actuality of continuation of the seismic hazard assessment resear-ches. For earthquake scenarios of various distances, average response spectrum (5 % attenuation) of surface ground fluctuation was plotted, peak ground acceleration were assessed at the maximum magnitude, series of peak ground acceleration models were simulated at respective MSK-64 intensity, and also amplification factor distribution map. The comparative analysis allows presuming that amplification occurs due to the resonance processes, that is, softer soils produce seismic wave amplitude amplification as a result of impedance differences of those layers and harder rocks. Seismic intensity increase is observed in the sites with soft-cemented sand-clayey soils, although with sands-tones, limestone and sandy marlstone of various thicknesses. It is demonstrated that ground displacements are various and not obviously oriented towards seismic source.
Highlights
Разрушительные последствия сильных землетрясений и гибель людей еще раз доказывают, что человечество в целом бес сильно перед этой природной катастрофой, несмотря на то, что в последние годы при оценке сейсмической опасности сейсмо логи во многих странах мира применяют новые современные методы и научные под ходы
Series of soft and strong earthqua kes occurred for the recent years on the southern slope of Greater Caucasus in Azerbaijan in Balakan (14.10.2012, M = 5,6; 29.06.2014, M = 5,3); Zagatala (07.05.2012, M = 5,7; 18.05.2012, M = 5,0; 05.06.2018, М= 5,5); Sheki; Sheki-Oguz (04.09.2015, M = 5,9); Gabala 04.10.2014, M= 5,0); Ismailli (05.02.2019, M= 5,2) demonstrates the increase of seismic activity in the given region and proves once aga in the necessity and actuality of continuation of the seismic hazard assessment resear ches
Summary
Разрушительные последствия сильных землетрясений и гибель людей еще раз доказывают, что человечество в целом бес сильно перед этой природной катастрофой, несмотря на то, что в последние годы при оценке сейсмической опасности сейсмо логи во многих странах мира применяют новые современные методы и научные под ходы. Цель настоящего исследования — ве роятностная и детерминистская оценка сейсмической опасности в сейсмоактив ных зонах южного склона Большого Кав каза (Балакен-Загатальской, Шеки-Габалинской; Шамахы-Исмаиллинской) за пе риод времени 1902—2018 гг.
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