Abstract
Earthquakes and tremors are a common occurrence throughout the world, mostly in China, Japan and Indonesia. In Kenya, we experience a lot of tremors and landslides during the rainy seasons that have extensive negative social, economic, and environmental impacts. These damages include loss of human life, financial loss and destruction of infrastructure. This becomes a lagging factor towards achieving the Vision 2030 and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study used secondary data, obtained from World Wide Standardized Seismograph Station (WWSSSN) in Kilimambogo. Stochastic artificial neural network was adopted to identify prone areas to the said natural disasters, measure the socioeconomic impacts and build a predictive model for landslides, tremor and earthquakes in Kenya. It was evident that landslides are destructive in nature through observable measurable impacts on people. They increase the social and economic burden on the affected people. 64.76% of the measurable impacts affect human beings directly while the rest affect cattle and crops. Along the Great rift valley, most earthquakes and landslides took place. This is attributed to the active seismic activities. Kenya experiences earthquakes of magnitude m < 4. Our model achieved root mean square of 0.435. Furthermore, we got R<sup>2</sup>=0.80 for testing dataset. This implied that 80% of data was trainable by the model. Therefore, the predictive neural network model is efficient and accurate in forecasting, and more importantly is a good fit model.
Highlights
Earthquakes are among the most devastating natural disasters
Tremors or earthquakes of magnitude 4 and below are the most frequent, followed by those of moderate magnitude (4-6) and, those with higher magnitude than 6 are less frequent [3]. They are destructive in terms of human life and financial losses
Counties near and/or within the rift valley are vulnerable to earthquakes
Summary
Earthquakes are among the most devastating natural disasters. Tremors or earthquakes of magnitude 4 and below are the most frequent, followed by those of moderate magnitude (4-6) and, those with higher magnitude than 6 are less frequent [3]. The East African region is characterized by a moderate level of seismicity, mainly controlled by the structural trend of the East African Rift Valley This makes the area within it, to be prone to landslides, volcanoes, tremors and. Between 1998-2017, landslides have affected about 5 million people and at least about 20,000 deaths It resulted to 8 billion USD economic losses. There is lack of capability to absorb severe economic impact due to natural disasters and an established effective disaster risk transfer mechanisms [15] This implies, earthquakes, landslide and tremors inhibit attainment of Vision 2030, better yet, achieving the sustainable development goals and the government's big four agenda. The government of Kenya, county governments and other private partnership have taken initiative in combating drought This can be extended to the other three natural disasters. Research support is necessary, the essence of this research
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