Seismic and radon signatures: A multiparametric approach to monitor surface dynamics of a hazardous 2021 rock–ice avalanche, Chamoli Himalaya

Abstract

AbstractThe observation of precursory signals of the 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche provides an opportunity to investigate the multidisciplinary analysis approach of rock failure. On 7 February 2021, a huge rock–ice mass detached from the Raunthi peak at Chamoli district in Uttarakhand, India. The tragic catastrophe resulted in more than 200 deaths and significant economic losses. Here, we analyse radon concentration and seismic signals to characterise the potential precursory anomalies prior to the detachment. Continuous peaks of radon anomalies were observed from the afternoon of 5 to 7 February and decreased suddenly after the event, while a cumulative number of seismic tremors and amplitude variations are more intensified ~2.30 h before the main event, indicating a static to dynamic phase change within the weak zone. This study not only characterises abnormal signals but also models the rock failure mechanisms. The analysis unveils three time‐dependent nucleation phases, physical mechanisms of signal generation and a complete scenario of physical factors that affected the degree of criticality of slope failure. The results of this study suggest gradual progression of rock cracks/joints, subsequent material creep and slip advancement acceleration preceded the final failure. Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of an early warning system to mitigate the impact of events like the 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche.