SEIRS model for malaria transmission dynamics incorporating seasonality and awareness campaign

Abstract

Malaria, a devastating disease caused by the Plasmodium parasite and transmitted through the bites of female Anopheles mosquitoes, remains a significant public health concern, claiming over 600,000 lives annually, predominantly among children. Novel tools, including the application of Wolbachia, are being developed to combat malaria-transmitting mosquitoes. This study presents a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SEIRS) compartmental mathematical model to evaluate the impact of awareness-based control measures on malaria transmission dynamics, incorporating mosquito interactions and seasonality. Employing the next-generation matrix approach, we calculated a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.4537, indicating that without robust control measures, the disease will persist in the human population. The model equations were solved numerically using fourth and fifth-order Runge-Kutta methods. The model was fitted to malaria incidence data from Kenya spanning 2000 to 2021 using least squares curve fitting. The fitting algorithm yielded a mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.6463 when comparing the actual data points to the simulated values of infectious human population (Ih). This finding indicates that the proposed mathematical model closely aligns with the recorded malaria incidence data. The optimal values of the model parameters were estimated from the fitting algorithm, and future malaria dynamics were projected for the next decade. The research findings suggest that social media-based awareness campaigns, coupled with specific optimization control measures and effective management methods, offer the most cost-effective approach to managing malaria.