SEIR Mathematical Model of Convalescent Plasma Transfusion to Reduce COVID-19 Disease Transmission

Hennie Husniah,Md H A Biswas,Ruhanda Ruhanda,Asep K Supriatna

doi:10.3390/math9222857

Hennie Husniah, Md H A Biswas + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/math9222857

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Abstract

In some diseases, due to the restrictive availability of vaccines on the market (e.g., during the early emergence of a new disease that may cause a pandemic such as COVID-19), the use of plasma transfusion is among the available options for handling such a disease. In this study, we developed an SEIR mathematical model of disease transmission dynamics, considering the use of convalescent plasma transfusion (CPT). In this model, we assumed that the effect of CPT increases patient survival or, equivalently, leads to a reduction in the length of stay during an infectious period. We attempted to answer the question of what the effects are of different rates of CPT applications in decreasing the number of infectives at the population level. Herein, we analyzed the model using standard procedures in mathematical epidemiology, i.e., finding the trivial and non-trivial equilibrium points of the system including their stability and their relation to basic and effective reproduction numbers. We showed that, in general, the effects of the application of CPT resulted in a lower peak of infection cases and other epidemiological measures. As a consequence, in the presence of CPT, lowering the height of an infective peak can be regarded as an increase in the number of remaining healthy individuals; thus, the use of CPT may decrease the burden of COVID-19 transmission.

Highlights

Accepted: 3 November 2021The WHO officially declared the COVID-19 pandemic more than a year ago, i.e., on11 March 2020 [1]
We show that the use of convalescent plasma transfusion (CPT) may decrease the burden of COVID-19 transmission such as resulting in a lower peak of infection cases and a higher number of persons who remain susceptible
We presented a continuous SEIR epidemic model considering the effect of an intervention using convalescent plasma transfusion (CPT) to the infected class

Summary

Introduction

Accepted: 3 November 2021The WHO officially declared the COVID-19 pandemic more than a year ago, i.e., on11 March 2020 [1]. The WHO officially declared the COVID-19 pandemic more than a year ago, i.e., on. Since the announcement of the pandemic, almost every country has made a concerted effort to control the virus, but the number of COVID-19 infections is still climbing in many parts of the world. Economy, and other human aspects, COVID-19 is still considered a very dangerous new disease. After more than a year since its first appearance, COVID-19 is still reoccurring in many parts of the world for multiple reasons including mutation of the virus into different variants. This is one of the reasons why most infected countries are failing in battling the disease

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