Seiche Effects in Lake Tekapo, New Zealand, in an Mw8.2 Alpine Fault Earthquake

Abstract

This study investigates the potential for seismic seiches in Lake Tekapo, New Zealand, triggered by ground shaking from an Mw8.2 Alpine Fault earthquake. Synthetic ground motions are used as a forcing boundary to drive lake water motions by further developing a tsunami simulation model—COMCOT—and coupling it with earthquake simulation model outputs. Our modelling results reveal that lake water oscillations are mobilised immediately by the ground movement and further amplified by cross-lake seiches. Amplitudes of lake oscillations can reach up to 4.0 m in the lake’s narrow southern arm, over 1.0 m along the shore of Lake Tekapo township, and about 1.5–2.5 m along many other parts of the lake shore. Large-amplitude water oscillations quickly attenuate in the first 5–10 min after the earthquake due to their relatively short periods, while long-period oscillations continue for a long time, albeit with much smaller amplitudes. Spectral analysis clearly reveals that the ground motions trigger both fundamental and higher modes in the lake whose oscillation periods are consistent with theoretical estimates. We find that large-amplitude lake water oscillations are better correlated with low-frequency, less energetic ground motion content than with high-frequency large-amplitude ground motions. Ground motion-triggered lake oscillations are large enough to pose potential threat to tourists, residents, boats and infrastructure both in the lake water and onshore near the waterfront. In contrast, vertical co-seismic displacements in the lake area, the conventional mechanism for tsunami generation, are too small to trigger tsunami waves of concern.