Seeking the truth in a world of chance

Abstract

An object of fascination throughout history, the concept of chance has assumed a dominant role in contemporary life. Statistical inference, reaching maturity in the twentieth century, has transformed science and is at the basis of much of our modern technology. But the century just past also revealed to us the intrinsic limitations of scientific knowledge, yielding the conclusion that science will never be able to explain all of reality. There is a pervasive uncertainty concerning absolutes. Our notion of truth is that of statistical truth, derived from fallible observations. Focusing on the statistical approach as a way to seek consensus in our pluralistic culture, the author presents an “ethics of evidence” for dealing with uncertainty. The ethics of evidence poses two complementary rules: it calls for the best possible evidence in human affairs, and it urges open acceptance of uncertainty—irreducible scientific and existential uncertainty. It is not meant as an abstract theory, but as a practical inquiry into how we should live our lives in a world of uncertainty. Its aim is a synthesis that unifies the accumulating insights of diverse disciplines in the search for ultimate meaning. The theme of this essay is illustrated by reference to the integrated thought of Pascal, founder of probability theory and seminal thinker of the seventeenth century.