Seedling emergence and survival of Warea carteri (Brassicaceae), an endangered annual herb of the Florida Scrub

Abstract

Seedling emergence and survival to flowering are critical processes in the life history of annual plants. We evaluated the importance of year and habitat on seedling emergence and the effects of year, habitat, timing of seedling emergence, and seedling density on survival of Warea carteri Small, an annual mustard endemic to Florida scrub. We tagged 1329 seedlings in 78 permanent 0.25 m2 quadrats in two habitats (scrub and disturbed) between 1999 and 2002 and followed seedlings monthly. Most (>80%) seedling emergence occurred between September and December. Emergence peaked 2 months earlier and was more variable in disturbed sites than in scrub. Seedling survival among years ranged from 3.5% to 12.0%. Seedling density varied from 1 to 75 per 0.25 m2 quadrat, with an overall median of 6.0. Survival was not density dependent. Median age at flowering ranged from 11.7 to 15.2 months, with late season recruits most likely to survive to flowering. Warea carteri recruits like a winter annual but flowers like a summer annual. Its delayed germination and a 12–15 month life span contribute to population cycling. Complete reproductive failure in unfavorable years, high seed production in favorable years, low rates of seed germination, and a persistent seed bank are consistent with predictions for an annual species in a variable habitat.