Abstract

PurposeThis study analyzes the variability of sediment loads under variant climate change and land use scenarios in a Carpathian catchment with a dam reservoir. The areas with the highest share of sediment loads are tracked to establish possible indications for future catchment management plans.Materials and methodsAnalyses were performed for the Raba River catchment (Poland, Carpathian Mountains) with use of the Macromodel DNS/SWAT. The RCP 4.5 climate forecast predictions (2021–2050 and 2071–2100), downscaled for the area of Poland, and land use predictions from the DYNA-Clue model for the Carpathian area, were taken into consideration. A total of seven scenarios were created, accounting for precipitation (P1 and P2), temperature (T1 and T2), land use (LU) changes, and combined effects (COMB1 and COMB2).Results and discussionThe average load delivered to the dam reservoir was estimated as 2.43 Gg y−1, and its seasonal/yearly variability was followed by local meteorological phenomena. Among the tested factors, precipitation change, in terms of total amount and intensity, exerted the most impact on sediment loads causing their increase. Temperature and land use changes resulted in a slight decrease. Combined scenarios implied that changes of the catchment area use, such as increase of forest cover, can noticeably reduce sediment loads delivered into a dam reservoir.ConclusionsThe performed simulations revealed the importance of incorporating variant scenarios for catchment management plans, development of land use mitigation measures (erosion), and operational procedures for the dam reservoir. Particular attention should be paid to warmer winters with heavy rainfalls and temperatures above zero, which together with a lack of plant vegetation result in elevated annual sediment loads reaching the dam reservoir. Further changes must be mitigated by anti-erosion investments.

Highlights

  • Climate change impact at the catchment scale has been studied intensely over the last 20 years

  • The following sediment load variability was analyzed for the Myślenice calculation profile (Fig. 1) which encompasses the upper part of the Raba River catchment, and constitutes the last water gauge/monitoring point upstream from the reservoir

  • Selection of this calculation profile allowed us for the first time to simulate the effects of climate change in the Polish Carpathians on the sediment load delivered to the dam reservoir

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Summary

Introduction

Climate change impact at the catchment scale has been studied intensely over the last 20 years. Current studies related to sediment quantity estimations under climate change scenarios generally predict an increase of sediment loads under an upward trend of average precipitation due to intensification of soil erosion (Lu et al 2013; Darby et al 2015; Zhou et al 2017; Giardino et al 2018; Barrera Crespo et al 2019). The response of catchment models to temperature changes is even more complex, naturally displaying either an increase or a decrease in sediment loads (Bussi et al 2016). Since temperature shifts can affect catchment water balance through various local phenomena, e.g., early snowmelt, droughts/rainfall occurrence, and distribution of vegetation cover, their impact on sediment loads seems to be strongly related to catchment geographical settings (Jentsch and Beierkuhnlein 2008; Ricci et al 2018; Shrestha and Wang 2018). To produce reliable predictions, modeling efforts should incorporate results of downscaled climate predictions, account for regional trends in land use change, and analyze them simultaneously (Bussi et al 2016)

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