Sediment delivery ratio and its uncertainties on flood event scale: Quantification for the Lower Yellow River

Abstract

Sediment delivery ratio (SDR) for fluvial rivers was formulated with sediment rating curve. The observed data of SDR on flood event scale of the Lower Yellow River (LYR) were adopted to examine the formulation and to calibrate the model parameters. A regression formula of SDR was then established and its 95% prediction interval was accordingly quantified to represent its overall uncertainties. Three types of factors including diversity of the incoming flow conditions, river self-regulation processes, and human activities were ascribed to the uncertainties. The following were shown: (1) With the incoming sediment coefficient (ISC) being a variable, it was not necessary to adopt the incoming flow discharge as the second variable in the formulation of SDR; and (2) ISC=0.003 and therefore SDR=2 might be a threshold for distinguishing the characteristics of sediment transport within the LYR. These findings would highlight sediment transport characteristics on the scale of flood event and contribute to uncertainty based analysis of water volume required for sediment transport and channel maintenance of the LYR.