Security sector spending and public safety in South Sudan, 2006–2018

Abstract

ABSTRACT This analysis draws from security and state spending data to measure the human security experience in South Sudan. The results show a more volatile security environment following independence. Defence expenditure and human security, as measured in the number of insecurity episodes, are unrelated. Descriptive evidence indicates that human security and security expenditure tend to vary unpredictably over time, a signal that security sector spending is unresponsive to the country's security predicaments. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models suggest the same: security sector spending does not contain local insecurity. Instead, more defence investment seems to correlate with insecurity; an additional 1% spent on security translates to at least 60 deaths. This finding reflects the importance of reviewing South Sudan's security sector in order to properly situate the reforms currently outlined in Chapter II of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). As these reforms get implemented, security sector expenditures need strict oversight, with improved accountability measures integrated to minimise inefficiencies and foster sustainable socioeconomic and security results. Lastly, recent improvements in the security situation, as represented by significant reductions in violence, should be strategically leveraged to enable greater public confidence and trust in the recently inaugurated R-ARCSS.