Security risks of global environmental changes

Abstract

Today's world is characterized by rapid changes. Socio-economic changes are accompanied by increasing environmental pressures on natural resources. Decrease in quality and quantity of resources, rapid population growth and unequal access to resources are the main three factors that determine — through increased scarcity of resources — decreasing environmental security, and consequently risks of population displacement, social instability and possibly even violent conflict. In a ‘Conventional Development’ scenario world, rapid growth of population and economy, and the associated demands for food, water, energy and raw materials lead to increased environmental pressures and associated scarcity of resources, and thus, to increased security risks. Most important for the majority of conflicts, those within countries or regions, is the increasing scarcity and inequitable distribution of renewable resources, notably fresh water resources and arable land. These risks are exacerbated by large-scale environmental changes, such as climate change. Risk of conflicts between countries can be increased by the scarcity and unequal distribution of renewable resources too, but also by scarcity of non-renewable resources. An example is the increased concentration of fossil energy supply (notably oil and gas) in a limited number of politically unstable world regions.