Security risk assessment of projects in high-risk areas based on attack-defense game model

Abstract

Assessing the security risk of projects in high-risk areas is particularly important. This paper develops a security risk assessment model for projects in high-risk areas based on the target loss probability model and Bayesian game model. This model is modeled from the perspective of attack-defense confrontation and addresses the issue that traditional risk assessment focuses on the analysis of the attacker yet neglects to analyze the defender—the defender’s optimum defensive information is not quantitatively determined. The risk level, optimum defensive resource value, and optimum defensive strategy of the project are determined through the analysis of a project in the high-risk area. This enables the project’s risk manager to adjust the defensive resources reasonably and optimally, confirming the objectivity and feasibility of the model and offering a new benchmark for security risk assessment, which has significant practical implications.