Abstract
Power failures in a number of electric systems worldwide emphasize the importance of security of electric supply. Security of supply involves long term resource adequacy and medium to short term generation reserve management. Generation reserve requirements are usually determined using empirical rules considering the demand as a deterministic quantity. Ignoring randomness could lead to suboptimal decisions. The research presented here differs from that prevailing in the literature by considering the demand as a random variable following a doubly truncated normal distribution this has the advantage of allowing considering day to day and seasonal variations. In this paper two new mathematical models are presented to determine generation reserve requirements for a market in which the regulator imposes an extremely high load curtailment cost in any unmet demand and delegates the role of buying generation reserves on the generators in a secondary market. These models are helpful tools to study analytically or by numerical simulation the interactions between the two markets. A potential scope for application of the proposed models is presented for the Colombian electric market.
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