Security in context (SiC): a novel theoretical and empirical approach to the US–China rivalry

Abstract

The twenty-first-century global arena is profoundly shaped by the intensifying US–China rivalry. While theories in the US, such as the Thucydides’ Trap and the Clash of Civilizations, forecast a prospective ‘Cold War II,’ many experts in China propound a ‘divided peace,’ advocating for the stable coexistence of dual powerhouses. Introducing a nuanced lens, the ‘Security in Context’ (SiC) approach argues for a more interconnected and multi-dimensional understanding of great power dynamics. This study dives into the practicalities of a SiC approach, examining key strategies including the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy. As we venture into the era of economic and technological decoupling, epitomized by measures like the Chip Act and Restrict Act, the paper suggests that the SiC framework remains central to deciphering the evolving US–China narrative, even in the face of burgeoning uncertainties.