Security analyst target prices as reference point and takeover completion

Dirk F Gerritsen,Utz Weitzel

doi:10.1016/j.jbef.2017.07.004

Abstract

Based on prospect theory, we posit that security analysts’ target prices function as a reference point for takeover bids and affect deal completion. Using a sample of US takeovers from 1999 to 2014, we find a negative relation between target prices for a takeover target and the chances for successful deal completion. High degrees of target price dispersion indicate high reference points for some investors. Accordingly, we find low completion rates when target price dispersion is high. Our results hold for both ultimate deal completion and implied completion probability measured shortly after bids were announced as an alternative measure for completion likelihood.

Highlights

Physical damage from natural disasters has increased substantially over the last decades, with floods accounting for 47% of all weatherrelated disasters from 1995 to 2015, affecting 2.3 billion people and killing 157,000 [44]
By utilizing data collected from a face-to-face survey, this paper focuses on determining the drivers of three key flood preparedness actions taken by households in ten poor communities in Tabasco, Mexico
While for our study we focus on determining the drivers of three key flood preparedness actions taken by households in ten poor communities in Tabasco, Mexico, learnings from a developed country context are relevant and we highlight a few here

Summary

Introduction

Physical damage from natural disasters has increased substantially over the last decades, with floods accounting for 47% of all weatherrelated disasters from 1995 to 2015, affecting 2.3 billion people and killing 157,000 [44]. Investing in disaster preparedness prior to a flood event can help mitigate the negative impacts of the flood catastrophe occurrence and, when selected well, be cost effective over time (that is the reduction in expected losses is higher than the cost of implementing these measures) [21,28,32,49]. There has been a significant focus on integrated flood risk management in recent years, aimed at minimizing adverse effects and at learning to cope with these events [25,40,47]. One of the key aspects of integrated flood risk management is the use of loss reduction and preparedness measures prior to a flood event such as through flood-resilient design and construction, development of early warning systems, insurance, awareness campaigns including trainings and education related to disaster preparedness [34,47]. Bubeck et al [4] conducted a literature review of sixteen studies

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Conclusion