Security Analysis about a Train Control Center Based on a Bayesian Network

Abstract

In this paper, by the study of the train control center, the authors will build a Bayesian networks model on the train control center in GeNIe, then the authors can use Bayesian networks structure learning algorithm combined with the corresponding original network optimization; at the same time based on multiple fuzzy expert root node evaluation prior probability of Bayesian networks analysis algorithms the authors can get the root of its initial probability distribution, and through parameter learning of the Bayesian networks the authors can do quantitative safety analysis on the train control center. By the safety analysis model of the train control center based on Bayesian networks the authors can not only appropriate security risk quantification calculations train control center, but so analysis and diagnose the main factors which lead to different consequences and posterior probabilities.