Secular trends of suicide risk for residents in mainland China (2004 to 2019): An updated age–period–cohort analysis

Abstract

BackgroundThe overall suicide rate in China has dropped substantially since the 1990s, but a slowdown in the decrease and even a reversing trend was observed in specific groups in recent years. This study aims to investigate the latest suicide risk in mainland China by using the age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. MethodThis population-based multiyear cross-sectional study included Chinese ages 10 to 84 years using data from the China Health Statistical Yearbook (2005–2020). Data were analyzed by the APC analysis and intrinsic estimator (IE) technique. ResultsThe data satisfactorily fit the constructed APC models. The cohort effect indicated a high risk of suicide among people birth in 1920–1944 and a sharp decline in the 1945–1979 cohort. The lowest risk occurred in the 1980–1994 cohort before a sharp increase in generation Z (birth years in 1995–2009). The period effect showed a declining trend since 2004. The age effect indicated that the suicide risk increased over time, except for a gradual decline from age 35 to 49. The suicide risk increased greatly in adolescents and reached the highest among the elderly. LimitationsThe aggregated population-level data and the non-identifiability of the APC model could result in bias in the accuracy of results in this study. ConclusionsThis study successfully updated the Chinese suicide risk from the age, period and cohort perspective using the latest available data (2004–2019). The findings enhance the understanding of suicide epidemiology and provide evidence supporting policies and strategies at the macro-level for suicide prevention and management. Immediate action is needed to focus on a national suicide prevention strategy that targets generation Z, adolescents and the elderly which will require a collaborative effort by government officials, public/community health planners and health care agencies.