Abstract
The US economy has proved to be considerably more resilient than had been widely expected in the immediate aftermath of the events of 11 September last year. Although these did cause some short-term disruption to the economy as a whole, GDP rose by 0.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, more than offsetting the decline in output in the third quarter. Forward looking indicators, such as business and consumer confidence and equity markets, have all picked up since that time. Recent data suggest that growth has accelerated further since the start of this year, and it appears likely that GDP will have risen by at least 1 percentage point in the first quarter. If the current recovery is sustained, the recent recession will have proved to be the mildest on record.
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