Second-based queue length estimation with fusing MMW and low penetration rate CAV trajectory data

Abstract

This paper combines millimeter-wave radar (MMW) data with connected autonomous vehicle (CAV) trajectory data to estimate queue length on a second-by-second basis. Firstly, queued vehicles on multiple lanes with the same traffic movement are mapped to a virtual lane. Then, the presence of CAV or human-driven vehicle (HDV) for any given queueing index is determined. A Bayesian joint probability model is subsequently established for queue length expectation, considering the existence of the queued vehicle type as a condition. The average time headway and dissipation speed distribution are derived from departure timestamps, which allows for the calculation of the prior probability ratio of queue length. Lastly, the maximum likelihood estimation (EM) algorithm is employed for iteratively estimating the CAV penetration rate. Simulation results demonstrate the method offers a compelling trade-off between precision and second-based real-time performance, while field test results further confirm the wide applicability under various traffic conditions.