Second-order beliefs and gender

Abstract

Beliefs about beliefs—second-order beliefs—about the differences between populations are important to understanding differences in outcomes between those populations. To study their potential impact, we develop an incentive-compatible experimental framework for eliciting beliefs (first-order) and beliefs about beliefs (second-order) about the differences in any measurable characteristic between any two populations. We implement the procedure to study beliefs about men's and women's performance on a math task and their choices in the ultimatum game. In the math task, 71% of participants believe that most men believe men outscore women. In contrast, 34% believe that most women believe men outscore women. Despite these differences in second-order beliefs with respect to math ability, we observe no such difference in first-order beliefs. On the other hand, we find no difference in participants’ beliefs about men's and women's beliefs with respect to choices in the ultimatum game, which is consistent with our observation of no difference in first-order beliefs. These results have important labor market implications for the persistence of gender gaps.