Sea-surface temperatures predict targeted visual surveys of octopus abundance

Abstract

In upwelling systems around the world, octopus abundance is forecast by marine productivity linked to upwelling strength, often indicated by sea-surface temperatures. Climate change may disrupt populations of marine animals that are linked to such temperature-dependent events. We analysed the relationship of the abundance of giant Pacific octopuses (Enteroctopus dofleini) to Gulf of Alaska and Washington State water temperatures. Abundance was measured in targeted visual surveys in Prince William Sound, Alaska, over the period 1995–2016 and from REEF.org diver surveys in Washington State from 2003 to 2019. Octopus counts from both survey programs had significant negative correlations with water temperatures over the previous 2.5–4 years. Water temperature accounted for from 0.41 to 0.71 of the variance (R2) in octopus abundance in eastern Gulf of Alaska waters located in ocean currents up-stream of the survey areas, and up to 0.81 of the variance in Washington State waters. These negative correlations provide a possible predictive index for octopus abundance as measured by targeted visual surveys. These methods may be useful tools in management of octopuses and indicate impacts of climate change on North Pacific coastal marine ecosystems.