Seasons of Stress: Understanding the Dynamic Nature of People’s Ability to Respond to Change and Surprise

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is impacting coastal communities in rural Alaska in multiple direct and indirect ways. Here, findings are reported from ethnographic research done with municipal workers, community leaders, and other local experts in the Bristol Bay region of Alaska, where it is found that climate change is interacting with local social and environmental circumstances in ways more nuanced than are generally captured by frameworks for vulnerability analysis. Specifically, the research herein shows the importance of the temporal dimension of vulnerability to environmental change in rural Alaska, both in terms of temporal patterns that emerge from climate-driven stressors and also with respect to how, and under what conditions, people in rural communities may design or manage effective responses to change. There are multiple factors that play into how rural communities will be affected by some climatic or environmental stress; ultimately, the impacts of climatic and environmental stressors will differ depending on where, when, and how frequently they occur. To capture these interactions, two analytical concepts—community capacity and cumulative effects—are discussed and then incorporated into a visual tool for improved planning and vulnerability analysis.