Seasonally Dependent Change of the Number of Fractures after 50 Years of Age in Poland-Analysis of Combined Health Care and Climate Datasets.

Abstract

Aim: The incidence of fractures correlates with many independent and interrelated factors. The aim of the study was to examine trends in fracture incidence and to find possible reasons for changes. Materials and methods: A complete dataset of Polish population aged above 50 from the National Heath Fund—which is a single, state-owned payer for the health service procedures in Poland—covering the years between 2010 and 2015 was analyzed along with climate dataset. Results: The analysis indicated that there was a substantial and statistically significant decrease in the incidence of forearm and hip fractures (p = 0.007 and 0.007, respectively). On the other side, there was a statistically significant increase in incidence of humerus and lumbar fractures (p = 0.002, p < 0.001, respectively). The observed changes (especially decrease in forearm and hip fracture incidence) happened mostly in the cold season and were correlated to mean-temperature changes during the assessed time period. Conclusion: In the analysis based on the dataset obtained from fracture-related database collected in Poland in the years 2010–2015 in the population of patients over 50 years of age, we observed that the changes of fracture incidence during the observation period are associated with and may be dependent on the season (warmer versus colder) and on mean temperature increase during the observation period.