Abstract
BackgroundThis study aimed to assess the seasonality of confirmed malaria cases in Togo and to provide new indicators of malaria seasonality to the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP).MethodsAggregated data of confirmed malaria cases were collected monthly from 2008 to 2017 by the Togo’s NMCP and stratified by health district and according to three target groups: children < 5 years old, children ≥ 5 years old and adults, and pregnant women. Time series analysis was carried out for each target group and health district. Seasonal decomposition was used to assess the seasonality of confirmed malaria cases. Maximum and minimum seasonal indices, their corresponding months, and the ratio of maximum/minimum seasonal indices reflecting the importance of malaria transmission, were provided by health district and target group.ResultsFrom 2008 to 2017, 7,951,757 malaria cases were reported in Togo. Children < 5 years old, children ≥ 5 years old and adults, and pregnant women represented 37.1%, 57.7% and 5.2% of the confirmed malaria cases, respectively. The maximum seasonal indices were observed during or shortly after a rainy season and the minimum seasonal indices during the dry season between January and April in particular. In children < 5 years old, the ratio of maximum/minimum seasonal indices was higher in the north, suggesting a higher seasonal malaria transmission, than in the south of Togo. This is also observed in the other two groups but to a lesser extent.ConclusionsThis study contributes to a better understanding of malaria seasonality in Togo. The indicators of malaria seasonality could allow for more accurate forecasting in malaria interventions and supply planning throughout the year.
Highlights
This study aimed to assess the seasonality of confirmed malaria cases in Togo and to provide new indicators of malaria seasonality to the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP)
This study aimed to assess the seasonality of confirmed malaria cases from 2008 to 2017 by health district and target group in Togo, and to provide new indicators of malaria seasonality to the NMCP in order to avoid stockouts of malaria commodities in health facilities during high malaria transmission
Confirmed malaria cases From 2008 to 2017, 7,951,757 malaria cases were reported in Togo (Table 1)
Summary
This study aimed to assess the seasonality of confirmed malaria cases in Togo and to provide new indicators of malaria seasonality to the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP). Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium parasites that are transmitted to people through the bites of infected female Anopheles mosquitoes [1]. 215 million malaria cases and 348,000 malaria deaths for the African Region, which accounted for 94% of cases and deaths worldwide [2]. Of the five parasite species that cause malaria in humans, Plasmodium falciparum is the most prevalent in sub-Saharan region [1, 3]. In 2018, it was responsible for 99.7% of estimated malaria cases in the WHO African Region [4]. Children under 5 years old and pregnant women are at higher risk of adverse malaria outcomes such as severe malaria [5]. The most common manifestations of severe malaria in children are cerebral
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