Seasonality in the Amplitude of Decadal Variability

Abstract

Abstract As the understanding of decadal variability in climate systems deepens, there is a growing interest in investigating the decadal variability of seasonal-mean or monthly mean variables. This study aims to understand the seasonality observed in the amplitude of decadal variability. To accomplish this, we analyze the decadal variability of the monthly mean North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and North Pacific index (NPI) over the past decades using two different calculating processes: the full smoothing (F) process and the seasonal-specific (SS) process. Our findings suggest that the F process only captures the decadal variability of annual-mean variables, whereas the SS process is suited for capturing the seasonality of decadal variability. We find that the seasonality in decadal variability aligns with the seasonality in interannual variability. Additionally, we explore the seasonality in decadal variability in atmospheric and oceanic variables. The seasonality in oceanic decadal variability, including sea surface temperature and salinity, is found to be weak and small. The amplitude of decadal variability in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is similar across different months, indicating weak seasonality in the PDO. On the other hand, decadal variability of lower-tropospheric atmospheric circulation, including horizontal wind, geopotential height, and surface air temperature, exhibits significant seasonality in the extratropics, with the strongest decadal variability occurring in winter. Moreover, the significant seasonality in decadal variability of precipitation is observed in the tropics, with the strongest decadal variability occurring in summer. Our study provides insights into understanding the seasonality of decadal variability, which can aid in the improvement of decadal prediction of climate variability. Significance Statement The amplitude of decadal variability of seasonal-mean or monthly mean variables exhibits seasonality. Our results show that the seasonality in decadal variability is consistent with the seasonality in interannual variability. We also identified that the seasonality in oceanic decadal variability is weak and smaller than that in atmospheric decadal variability. Decadal variability of lower-tropospheric atmospheric circulation exhibits significant seasonality in the extratropics, with the strongest decadal variability occurring in winter. However, the significant seasonality in decadal variability of precipitation occurs in the tropics, with the strongest decadal variability occurring in summer. Our study provides insights into the seasonality of decadal variability in climate systems.