Seasonality in testing and positive respiratory bacterial infections in the Australian Capital Territory, 1997-2007.

Abstract

Chlamydia pneumoniae (Cp) and Mycoplasma pneumoniae (Myco) bacteria are atypical pathogens that can cause pneumonia and exacerbate underlying conditions such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In the Australian Capital Territory, there is limited information on how seasonal patterns for positive infections and testing may vary, a gap that has implications for control strategies. We examined seasonal patterns of immunoassay results of patients from Canberra Hospital, Australia, who were tested for Cp and/or Myco. Pathology data, collected from August 1997 to March 2007 from 7,275 patients, were analysed with time series additive decomposition and time series regression. The proportion of positive Cp infections was highest in March and April (autumn) and lowest in June and August (winter). The proportion of positive Myco infections was highest in December and January (summer) and lowest in August (winter), even though testing for the pathogen peaked in winter with a low in summer. Models with a long-term trend and a variable for month were a better fit for the data than the null models for both infections. We found differences in seasonal patterns of testing and in the proportion of positive infections. These findings suggest that preventative measures for common infections need to account for seasonal testing practices so as to build an accurate picture of temporal changes in these infections.