Seasonality in Indian Commodities Market: Insights for modeling from preceding commodity cycle

Abstract

In this study we analyze seasonal behavior of Indian agriculture, energy and metal commodities through the ten years of preceding Super-cycle (2003-13) by considering monthly data for near month futures prices to remove basis variance. The thrust of the paper is to investigate seasonal behavior of selected commodities in India using monthly seasonal dummies. We found seasonal variation in four commodities namely gold, barley, guar and Jeera. In a declining interest-rate scenario and Post-Covid world, there is elevated likelihood that we are going to witness the next commodities super-cycle. It is imperative for hedge fund managers, global investors, commodities traders, high net-worth individuals, market participants and spread-traders to know what to expect based on the preceding super-cycle to strategize better and address seasonality.