Seasonality as Factor of Logistic Costs Formation

Abstract

The seasonality of demand for goods and services creates vital issues both for the organization of their production, and for implementation of logistic processes. Seasonal fluctuations, as a rule, negatively affect work of the enterprises that is shown in equipment downtimes, incomplete use production and warehouse, in uneven use of human resources, violation of rhythm of activity, to the unreasonable growth of costs. In logistic activity the seasonality influences a set of its components, including creation and maintenance of stocks, existence of warehouse spaces, number and capacities of sales channels and supply. This influence in much defines fluctuations of values of logistic costs. The article proposes an approach to identifying the presence of seasonality, quantitative characteristics in various periods of the annual cycle, the separation of seasonal and trend components of seasonality dynamics, mathematical and statistical modeling of seasonality in the formation of such costs. A forecast assessment of the future dynamics of costs is carried out. Emphasis is made on the highlighting the seasonal component in the indicators of logistics costs that allows to analyze their dynamics more deeply, improve the quality of management decisions associated with them.