Abstract

Any country that is always looking to grow the country's economy should be based on the international trade sector. The present study examines the dynamics and the seasonality in Romania's international exchanges in live animals and animal products. Try to modelling aspects of the seasonality in a time series, can be an issue of that decision makers take into account in assessing the performance of the sector. The analyzed period for this paper is 2004-2013. Live animals trade in Romania is one of the three sectors with positive balance of trade and the rhythm of growth for the exports increased faster than for the imports. The analyze of the seasonality, made by two methods, suggested that the trade in live animals has had negative adjustments due to seasonal factors, at least on the first quarter and the trade with agro food products has had negative adjustments on the first and second quarter. Regarding the forecasting 2014 and 2015, quarterly time periods, the linear method was the one which has had the best adjustment.

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